This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$95.9K
LIQUIDITY
$95.9K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 12
Recently unknown source of explosions in Qeshm and the strait of Hormuz. Iran says "security incident", too early to tell if it is ship related or something else.
AwfulWork Sep 12
Love these scalp markets
Car Sep 11
Praise be to Allah
.asravio Sep 11
you know where is drop?
dfupagain Sep 11
I think it's roughly fair value at this point. You'll win more than 2/3 of the time. 80% + chance there will be more fighting, but Iran will decide when it starts again unless it's after the midterms.
LEGENDARY101 Sep 11
Make it start 2nd Sep, you're still losing
dfupagain Sep 11
No qualifying action occurred since the market opened so the clocks starts Sept 2, 2026 at 03:50 PMET
dfupagain Sep 11
I don't think you're reading the rules correctly. The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT.
dfupagain Sep 11
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT.
Car Sep 11
This market resolves Yes in 3 days btw
12beduins Sep 11
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson: President Trump never sleeps and we don't either. Heh heh heh.
Channel4 Sep 10
Smells correct to me!
Ruxpin84 Sep 10
This seems strange: "Maritime territory and airspace are **not** encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify." So bombing any of their ships doesnt constitute a "military action"??? Seems absurd to me!
Car Sep 10
september 14th
Dropper Sep 10
when does September 4 resolve?
RainIess Sep 10
I remember back when this chat was just me n 12beds cracking jokes n talking shit, now literally EVERYBODYS here!
abdoohl Sep 10
I remember back when this chat was just me n 12beds cracking jokes n talking shit, now literally EVERYBODYS here!
Konfucious Sep 10
Rainless save some shekels for the rest of us
Mbreti Sep 10
Correct if there is no military action until the 15th, all of the dates resolve to yes.
blkoff Sep 10
t
LEGENDARY101 Sep 10
Lessgo
eCash Sep 10
Actually 5.4 days now.
dfupagain Sep 10
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT. Is this correct?
dfupagain Sep 10
The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026 at 3:50 PM ET = Sept 15 noon EDT. Is this not correct?
hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 10
Iran shot missiles at the Gulf, it was not the US, this is why you don't trust fake Iranian news!
Cryptostradamus Sep 9
What if the Pentagon is lying?
Car Sep 9
this market resolves Yes in 4 days btw
iNeedMoreDollars Sep 9
last strike was sept 1 right?
AwfulWork Sep 9
sorry arman
Car Sep 9
IRNA is top N holder
Homeless-the-grey Sep 9
Shit pentagon denies any attack on iran mainland.
Car Sep 9
running Iranian media must be so profitable
Car Sep 9
i LOVE this market
sh111 Sep 9
Lol Iran state media
Homeless-the-grey Sep 9
No strike on mainland. Pentagon just clarified!
Car Sep 9
dont get fudded by fake Iran news
sh111 Sep 9
By who lol
plshelpme10 Sep 9
resolve!!
Homeless-the-grey Sep 9
No mainland hit. Pentagon denies.
Rainless Sep 9
exatly
rafael7 Sep 9
Congrats loser
Car Sep 9
Strikes on vessels dont count btw
iNeedMoreDollars Sep 9
legit 5 minutes after i bought my shares
iNeedMoreDollars Sep 9
BREAKING: Iran's IRNA reports that several areas in Sirik were hit by enemy projectiles moments ago.
Car Sep 9
lol
humblelion Sep 9
Trump will not lose. He will fight
yungsoleimani Sep 9
good luck
yungsoleimani Sep 9
cute
abdoohl Sep 9
TAPTPTTM - Trump always press the pedal to the metal! Cant wait to cash out my winnings after Trump go for broke!!
molala Sep 9
Im just try to earn the liquidity reward....
