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66 markets

Tech

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

6%
$583.1K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026
Weather

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

6%
$343.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Weather

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

5%
$315.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

September 301%
December 314%
$42.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX52%
OpenAI1%
10 more
$31.3K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026
Science

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

4%
$24.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%
950–9990%
6 more
$23.8K Vol.•Jan 10, 2027
Weather

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%
$13.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX58%
OOpenAI42%
$12.1K Vol.•Dec 31, 2027
Tech

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

9%
$11.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

043%
124%
4 more
$10.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

4%
$9.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

177%
222%
4 more
$8.6K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

June 30, 202753%
December 31, 202766%
1 more
$8.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 3092%
October 3197%
7 more
$7.7K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027
Science

New pandemic before 2028?

18%
$7.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202628%
December 31, 202655%
1 more
$7.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer38%
Hodge Conjecture45%
4 more
$7.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202628%
December 31, 202660%
1 more
$5.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202614%
December 31, 202647%
1 more
$4.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in London in September?

<30mm21%
30-40mm24%
5 more
$3.5K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"8%
2-3"18%
4 more
$1.8K Vol.•Oct 2, 2026

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 202612%
December 31, 202625%
$1.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Riemann Hypothesis10%
P versus NP5%
12 more
$1.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

New pandemic in 2026?

5%
$1.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Culture

Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

96%
$1.3K Vol.•Ends Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"16%
1-1.5"32%
5 more
$1.2K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?

<1297%
124%
3 more
$1.2K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

3500+97%
3300+100%
3 more
$1.0K Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k99%
↑4.5k86%
6 more
$956 Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
Politics

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

11%
$796 Vol.•Ends Jul 1, 2027
Weather

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

5%
$660 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 3164%
December 3166%
$609 Vol.•-
Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

19%
$440 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Finance

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

1%
$430 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

<75mm82%
75-100mm11%
6 more
$397 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

11st hottest24%
22nd hottest87%
2 more
$349 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026
Weather

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

4%
$283 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?

<275mm80%
275-300mm4%
8 more
$266 Vol.•Oct 1, 2026
Crypto

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

1%
$238 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Weather

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

11%
$218 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 20265%
December 31, 202717%
1 more
$210 Vol.•Jan 1, 2029
Tech

Human moon landing in 2026?

2%
$198 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

77.9 or below75%
88.0 – 8.112%
5 more
$195 Vol.•Jan 4, 2027

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

DDecember 31, 20264%
DDecember 31, 202716%
1 more
$146 Vol.•Jan 1, 2029

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

FFewer than 206%
220 to 3452%
2 more
$143 Vol.•Mar 31, 2027
Tech

OpenAI retracts Navier-Stokes solution in 2026?

7%
$112 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

62%
$111 Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028