This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24H VOLUME
$159.4K
LIQUIDITY
$159.4K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
anoinwhowin 11m ago
You decided on you own to bet on a "poorly written" market, thus getting exposed to any clarification possible. Stop complaining in the casino
conormurphy 36m ago
RULES ARE CLEARRR - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
abdoohl 7h ago
Imagine a country based on entitlement SMH
ithinkthisisgod 9h ago
3% kipuur get canceled? isnt this free 3%
Rinzooffical 13h ago
can anyone dispute please
abdoohl 21h ago
All they do is lie n murder and DEMAND to win Eurovision SMH
conormurphy 23h ago
RULES ARE CLEAR- - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
Rinzooffical Sep 12
Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined! there is also no like big whales here so it can’t be rigged!!
0x1f606f1f0e933cd6CD663a4Ec647B828e0E57AEF-1772370709200 Sep 12
yom kipur on 21st september but is still available flights on this date, so this is not 98%…
0x1f606f1f0e933cd6CD663a4Ec647B828e0E57AEF-1772370709200 Sep 12
even
conormurphy Sep 12
RULES ARE CLEAR AS CAN BE - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
Rinzooffical Sep 12
Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined! there is also no like big whales here so it can’t be rigged!
ithinkthisisgod Sep 12
free 2% in a week is crazy
abdoohl Sep 11
The only thing they dont stop on yom kuppur is the ethnic cleansing and blowing up peoples homes
conormurphy Sep 11
: Yom Kippur is the holiest day of the Jewish year. Because the entire country comes to a total standstill, civilian air traffic controllers, radar operators, and data technicians go home to fast and pray
Rinzooffical Sep 11
you definitely have the funds to dispute please do i would really dispute if i had funds to but i dont
Rinzooffical Sep 11
can you dispute
TronOG Sep 11
This is a pure scam. The market has an Iran tag, which clearly implies that any airspace closure should be related to the conflict, not a routine holiday. You can’t conveniently change the rules and add holiday term after people have already placed their bets. Polymarket admins need to step in and address this.
Rinzooffical Sep 11
Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined! there is also no like big whales here so it can’t be rigged
conormurphy Sep 11
it actully is lol
conormurphy Sep 11
Complete Staffing Shutdown: Yom Kippur is the holiest day of the Jewish year. Because the entire country comes to a total standstill, civilian air traffic controllers, radar operators, and data technicians go home to fast and pray
conormurphy Sep 11
THE RULES ARE CLEAR AS CAN BE - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
shkdee89 Sep 11
Breaking: Israel initiates major airspace closure. Perpetrator identified as Moses. NOTAM issued circa 1400 BCE, still in effect.
shkdee89 Sep 11
Incredible alpha from the clarification team: a holiday that predates powered flight by three thousand years is now a geopolitical airspace closure event. Yom Kippur, Israel X Iran category.
werpiu Sep 11
The mere fact that a holiday is taking place does not mean Israel’s airspace will definitely be closed, and it certainly does not provide a 90%+ guarantee for a "YES" outcome. The rules explicitly require a large-scale closure of all Israeli civil airspace. If the holiday merely results in the cancellation, rescheduling, or reduction of some flights, that is insufficient. The holiday counts only if it actually triggers a full or large-scale closure that meets the market rules.
werpiu Sep 11
A holiday isn't a magic spell that turns any flight restriction into the closure of Israel's entire civil airspace. 💀
Rinzooffical Sep 11
please dispute it bro
shkdee89 Sep 11
Love the Iran tag on a market that resolves on a religious holiday
totalost801 Sep 10
This is the biggest joke ive seen on polymarket.
conormurphy Sep 10
THE RULES ARE CLEAR AS CAN BE!: - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
Rinzooffical Sep 10
should not qualify
AliTheBeast Sep 10
Airspace closures due to weather do not qualify; otherwise, a closure will be considered initiated when it takes effect, regardless of when it was scheduled or announced. Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify.
Rinzooffical Sep 10
Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined!
ithinkthisisgod Sep 10
lol why this only at 94c
0xEFDC6a4670B084e2B0f5E4Ad7179A4EF7D8d7Bac-1781989326081 Sep 10
This is a very stupid bet. Every Yom Kipur which is a Jewish holidy in sept 20-21 this year the air space is closed.
werpiu Sep 10
The annual Yom Kippur flight suspension should not automatically be equated with an airspace closure. The regulations specifically address the closure of the majority of the airspace, rather than merely the cancellation of flights. From a market perspective, this falls under the category of geopolitics rather than holidays.
Rinzooffical Sep 10
Any no users please Dispute there is major flaws in this market -By counting yom kippur the market was predetermined to be already yes -A rule clarification cannot cause the market to have such a major change and by doing this they are milking the no users -the market is very poorly written and predetermined although you cannot request reverting rule clarification you can request market to be cancelled so it gets paid out 50/50 as the market was created predetermined y
Rinzooffical Sep 10
sure
conormurphy Sep 9
before the rules didnt clarify if a holiday would count, only weather, they CLARIFED the rules , NO CHANGE has accured!
dfupagain Sep 9
If you actually bought in AFTER polymarket clarified, you have a lot to learn still. UMA will never rule against a clarification, and nobody will dispute this.
Rinzooffical Sep 9
Is anyone disputing now or towards end of market?
Rinzooffical Sep 9
okay so what exactly do you think could happen so what Israel suddenly for their holiest day of the year and have been doing it for decades decide it’s not holy anymore and resume airspace? and it’s literally hovering around that range 96-95 people are selling due to the controversy in this market
conormurphy Sep 9
THE RULES ARE SO CLEAR THO - A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace , *Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify*
joeroganskick Sep 9
It's Joever they scammed me 5 dollars :(
Gify88 Sep 9
Traders locked millions of dollars based on a clear, single-focused risk profile: potential kinetic escalation, missile warfare, or a military conflict between Israel and Iran that could force emergency state measures.
Gify88 Sep 9
This market was created and hosted under the "Geopolitics / Iran" section!
0xblink Sep 9
They added as additional context that "Airspace closures due to holidays will qualify". In other words, they steer resolution however they like.
dfupagain Sep 9
Actually ever since the microstrategy drama the clarification team has been really strict. Now people are complaining because Polymarket is strictly following the rules. Go figure.
0xblink Sep 9
Market rule additions should not be allowed. Afterall, if a market needs clarification or addition means that they failed on their part to make a clear and transparent market resolution rule.
SIMOMEGA Sep 9
@dfupagain many markets didnt follow the rules wdym lmao
