This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
24H VOLUME
$84.8K
LIQUIDITY
$84.8K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
0x38607C4d798d5236aB2618c6800E3533D12e046B-1779284992118 2h ago
Keep dreaming
Car 19h ago
bruh
DontTrustMe Sep 12
Yes buyers be like:
Raskell Sep 12
War + the current block is the most propable yes scenario at the moment. The houthis don't want more international pressure atm.
Raskell Sep 12
The hardest part isn't if they can maintain a block but if they will even initiate a block that goes far enough. The best shot we have is that the current war caused enough diversions for this to go yes just from that.
abdoohl Sep 11
Muhammad al-Houthi, the former de facto president of Yemen, a top member of the Supreme Political Council, key administrator and diplomatic spokesman for the Ansar Allah movement, has been spotted riding around in the open bed of a pickup in Mokha, the strategic city the Houthis seized on Thursday. Onlookers in the street burst into spontaneous chanting of the Houthi slogan. 🫣 Netanyahu: hiding in a bunker after attacking Iran. 🤨 Trump: hiding in a catering truck and leaving his officials to die out of fear of an “Iranian assassination plot”. 😎 Houthis: riding around in an open pickup truck in broad daylight in the middle of a city they just captured a day earlier. Pure Alpha energy.
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 11
Pretty sure announcement, and traffic going to 0 today. Weird it correlated exactly on 9/11
Prof.Money-Exterminator Sep 11
Houthis are fucking wild. Ain’t no way for Nopers
saneperson Sep 11
yemeni forces had to back off and houthis moved forward
5038813185 Sep 11
Agree with you, the hardest part is whether Houthi is able to maintain the block. More bullish news from Hormuz Letter X, Hisn Murad, the narrowest part of the strait, just fell to the Houthis. However take this as a grain of salt as they sometimes overexaggerate.
Raskell Sep 10
That being said, of course the market conditions for a yes could be met temporarily.
Raskell Sep 10
The Egyptians won't tolerate a full closure. The chinese have shown clearly they will side with Egypt. Saudi Arabia is a clown show, but Ansar Allah can not ignore Beijing.
PMplayer Sep 10
annyone care to explain why sept 30 is going up ?
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 10
They literally have one more island to take on the straight and then they can shut it down... they captured 3 in a day i believe. No one to stop them.
abdoohl Sep 10
Looks like Ansarallah gonna capture eveything and we gonna get Greater Houthiland instead of greater israel!
yungsoleimani Sep 10
houthi mog
SIMOMEGA Aug 24
Nopp
IamBatman- Aug 24
yopp
yungsoleimani Aug 23
December 31 Yopp is free money, do i make the rules? No! I just collect the money man sorry not sorry
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Aug 22
I wish you had told me before I bought all those YES shares
zthunderfury Aug 22
Not going to happen
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 20
Actually, not bearish anymore. You could write Aug off but Sep/Dec idk. USS George Washington replacement just arrived. Look at Al-Jazeera for updates in US Iran relations.
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 19
I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!
Deterrance Aug 19
Houthis planning to seize Bab al-Mandeb Strait: Yemeni minister
DontTrustMe Aug 18
Nothing has changed btw. 🥱
yungsoleimani Aug 16
Sorry not sorry i dont make the rules i just collect the money man
DontTrustMe Aug 15
There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.
AmericaOnly Aug 13
Shipping down from 42 to 25 since 2 weeks ago. Dec here we come.
trickykid Aug 8
Just keep buying 31st Dec "Yes". Any escalation will send this bet to the moon.
SIMOMEGA Aug 7
i wouldnt speak with that pnl
SIMOMEGA Aug 7
hormuz tried the same game, it didnt work
SIMOMEGA Aug 7
madman indeed
zthunderfury Aug 7
rewards gone
DontTrustMe Aug 6
Why do you think that?
PMplayer Aug 6
order book on this market is completely fcked
DontTrustMe Aug 6
Weird. Was the weather abnormally bad yesterday? Traffic seems fairly normal today.
0xc327CcdEAbf1BdBd98722C4C2A360F2C3FDC31f5-1742139313586 Aug 6
"In Bab al-Mandeb, only one commodity vessel, a Bahamas-flagged dry bulk carrier, crossed the strait on Wednesday, Kpler data showed" from Al jazeera
AmericaOnly Aug 5
I love how they blasted Dubai and literally SUNK a ship in BaM and this is plummeting 🤣
ThanksGivingTurkey1001 Aug 4
resulv lil bruh
NoSteinNoGate Aug 4
It could have been resolved a week ago
Utoya Aug 4
July 31st can now be resolved right?
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 4
It is bearish due to US willing to surrender. There is also a high threshold that has to be reached before Houthi expands it to non-Saudi ships, and even then that won't settle 100% it would settle like 50 + 7-10% per each of the 7 days.
JohanDON Aug 3
Why
zthunderfury Aug 2
Not going to happen
JohanDON Jul 31
Lessgooo
0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d Jul 30
I am Spanish ship and no way I'm getting in there. I sail around Affrica and be safe. ¡Paella para todos!
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 29
I am Pakistani ship. Houthi gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
NOIZYUV Jul 29
Reuters: Sources estimate that Houthi rebels in Yemen are considering imposing "transit fees" on commercial vessels passing through the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
NoSteinNoGate Jul 28
I dont think so
Greed. Jul 28
Maybe u should go to Financial Maths class
