This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$20.8K
LIQUIDITY
$20.8K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
NoSteinNoGate 9h ago
A Russian drone impacting on nato territory is not enough?
cgtb Sep 9
living in Poland
lottonakamoto Sep 8
On the afternoon of September 8, residents of the Romanian cities of Iași and Vaslui received an RO-Alert message warning of a possible drone crash or its fragments. The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations issued the warning to residents of the aforementioned cities at 4:36 PM local time, Ziare reports. "There is a risk of objects falling from the air. Remain calm! Take shelter in basements or civil defense shelters. If shelter is not available, stay inside your home, away from windows and external walls. Estimated duration: 90 minutes," the message stated.
lottonakamoto Sep 8
Днем 8 сентября жители румынских городов Яссы и Васлуй получили сообщение RO-Alert с предупреждением о возможном падении дронов или их фрагментов. Генеральная инспекция по чрезвычайным ситуациям выпустила предупреждение для жителей упомянутых городов в 16:36 по местному времени, пишет Ziare. "Существует вероятность падения объектов из воздушного пространства. Сохраняйте спокойствие! Укройтесь в подвалах или убежищах гражданской защиты. В отсутствие укрытия оставайтесь внутри дома, подальше от окон и наружных стен. Предполагаемая продолжительность: 90 минут", — говорилось в сообщении.
12beduins Sep 5
ukr getting wrecked, only chance is to somehow involve NATO
lottonakamoto Sep 5
During the State Duma elections, Russians living in unfriendly countries will open ten polling stations at border crossings with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, Pavel Andreyev, a member of the Russian Central Election Commission, told TASS. Five polling stations will be set up in the Pskov Region, four in the Kaliningrad Region, and one in the Leningrad Region. The last will be located in Ivangorod, at the Ivangorod-Narva Russian-Estonian border crossing. According to Andreyev, the polling stations may be in demand, including by Russians living in Poland and Germany. A similar format was already used during the March 2024 presidential elections. Then, 11 polling stations were opened at the borders with Poland and the diverse Baltic states, where approximately 10,000 people cast their ballots. This is where conflicts and provocations are possible.
CW1975 Sep 3
Trading is disabled, here and elsewhere, too - Platform does not work properly for several days, though we pay a lot of fees 🙄
tricky.eth Sep 2
Europe (noun): "A continent of the northern hemisphere, separated from Africa to the south by the Mediterranean Sea and from Asia to the east roughly by the Bosporus, the Caucasus Mountains, and the Ural Mountains. Europe contains approximately 20 per cent of the world's population." Ukraine is located west of the Caucasus mountains. Therefore it is in Europe. I say this despite already knowing that you clearly don't have the reading comprehension skills necessary to understand this.
Laure Sep 1
Ní ionradh pleanáilte atá i mbaol, ach timpiste oibríochtúil gan srian sa Mhuir Bhailt nó sa Mhuir Dhubh a chuirfeadh borradh géaraithe faoi.
0xA1D6B7c8f2271D153A60d48F5656f6Cc49d4982D-1777574009113 Aug 28
New sea drone "incident", this time a ship sank: Romanian sailors fleeing the ship reported a drone strike. Observers and local accounts indicate it appears to be a Russian drone attack, continuing a dangerous uptick of drone incidents in the Black Sea throughout 2026."
12beduins Aug 27
ukr pooping themselves in fear its over
pookyisback Aug 27
Nah
Car Aug 27
Its happening.
12beduins Aug 26
its neither european nor country
0xf7eFBaBC3C14Bc7c1A8Cf7b79808e093ca23E53F-1783199708363 Aug 26
what
xew4w3345 Aug 26
Sky is red
12beduins Aug 26
ukraines not european country
nottrito Aug 25
The last time a CIA director was in Russia, a European country was invaded.
DonationsReceiver Aug 25
ну позязя не непадай на НАТО
12beduins Aug 24
rhetorical question bitch, look it up!
imstupid Aug 24
People die in wars, did you not know?
12beduins Aug 21
What a failure it is, Project Ukraine 👎 👎 👎
12beduins Aug 21
Ukraine now talking bout conscripting women. HAHAHAHAH WHAT HAPPENED TO THE MEN!?!?!!!?!
GetRekt17 Aug 21
whio is he and where is he yapping?
rafael7 Aug 21
Schizo relay always loses
Raskell Aug 21
Romanias mapn confirmed it had explosives
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1vtids6/romanian_f16_strafing_a_russian_naval_drone_near/
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
There's a video of it being shot on reddit, it doesn't blow up. Sorry no explosives
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
Politico: Romania’s Ministry of National Defense initially said the uncrewed vessel was carrying explosives, but later clarified it was a maritime drone.
YesMannnn Aug 21
Don't cry
YesMannnn Aug 21
Snow-White, r u OKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK？
YesMannnn Aug 21
Dumbfuck Snow-White lost 5k in this scam XDDDDDDD
President-Putin Aug 21
Bro has the unique talent of entering a market, donating his money, getting absolutely COOKED, then coming back five minutes later with another “expert” take.🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
President-Putin Aug 21
RELAY talking like he’s the fucking ORACLE while his portfolio looks like a MASS GRAVE 😭 Bro turns cash into ZERO for a living and still won’t stop yapping. Every take is a new exit-liquidity application. Keep talking, DUMBFUQ — the order book needs your donations.🤣🤣🤣
President-Putin Aug 21
BRAIND EAD RELAY OUT HERE YAPPING.🤒🤒🤒 ABSOLUTE DUMBFUQ LOSING MONEY ON THIS. EVERY TIME RELAY OPENS HIS MOUTH ANOTHER POSITION GOES TO ZERO. JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP AND KEEP FUNDING THE ORDER BOOK, YOU TOTAL FUCKING CLOWN.🤣🤣🤣
0x17cF29b47A2426d432214472EEe58c647fDc60f7-1765011609524 Aug 21
Yess?
henos Aug 21
That's rich coming from you. For once your "strategy" didn't pan out, huh?
mewmew1 Aug 21
u are fckin scammer and all urs fuckin bimbo bombo scamming squad with aenews and etc should be banned for life and all of ur funds should be seized by poly the end dont cry in the casino selfish biach
disputequant Aug 21
Where are you Relay we need you on market review
YesMannnn Aug 21
lol scammer Car，50p, thonker lost again
YesMannnn Aug 21
Cry scammer
GetRekt17 Aug 21
knowing their questionable competence this is indeed nice
Car Aug 21
scam
falconeq Aug 20
It was obvious NO
0x77Fa7e303F7a8017016A8388EF7ebA40a4a31A63-1764354685885 Aug 20
pretty good clarification. hail Polymarket!
Numero8 Aug 20
I will wait for my new @Car
pink.impala Aug 20
cope harder
NoSteinNoGate Aug 20
Bro was not ready
SleepyXXAdv Aug 20
Another scam by Polymarket
Numero8 Aug 20
Share a bit bro
